From the aCenter for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

bDepartment of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA

Submitted September 2, 2023; accepted January 11, 2024

This work was supported the Morris-Singer Fund and by Award Number U01CA261277 from the US National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health.

M.L. is working part-time at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention under two Intergovernmental Personnel Agreements. This work is solely in his academic capacity and does not reflect the views of the CDC or any government agency. The other author has no conflicts to report.

Supplemental digital content is available through direct URL citations in the HTML and PDF versions of this article (www.epidem.com).

Data and code are available on https://osf.io/2wpa5/

Correspondence: Marc Lipsitch, DPhil, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115. E-mail: [email protected].