Short-term ambient heat exposure and low APGAR score in newborns: A time-stratified case-crossover analysis in Sao Paulo state, Brazil (2013-2019)

Abstract

Exposure to high ambient temperatures near the time of delivery has been associated with adverse birth outcomes, but studies examining the impact on immediate newborn health remain limited. We used a time-stratified case-crossover design combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model to evaluate the short-term effects of ambient heat (0-1 day lag) on low 5-minute APGAR score (≤7; sub-categories: 6-7, 3-5, 0-2). Cases of low APGAR score among low-risk births (n=34,980) in São Paulo state (274 municipalities), 2013-2019, were extracted from Brazil’s Live Birth Information System (Sistema de Informações Sobre Nascidos Vivos). Municipality-level daily mean temperatures were constructed from ERA5-Land reanalysis data and linked with case and control days by date and municipality of delivery. Models were adjusted for relative humidity and stratified by maternal age, race/ethnicity, education, parity, timing of prenatal care initiation, infant sex, municipality-level deprivation, and Köppen climate zone. Overall, exposure to high (95th percentile: 26.1°C) versus moderate (50th percentile: 20.9°C) temperature 0-1 days before delivery was associated with 8% higher odds (OR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.02-1.14) of low APGAR score (≤7). In stratified analyses, heat-associated risks were elevated among infants born to women with <12 years of schooling (1.10, 1.03-1.17) and/or self-identifying as Brown/Parda (1.10, 1.01-1.20). Associations were primarily driven by same-day (lag 0) exposure and were only observed in newborns with moderately low APGAR scores (6-7). Acute exposure to ambient heat may adversely impact newborns’ immediate health in low-risk live-births, highlighting the need for heat mitigation measures near the time of delivery.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Clinical Trial

N/A.

Funding Statement

This work was supported by Wellcome Trust (https://wellcome.org/) under Grant Number 226306/A/22/Z (recipients: EBB, MLB, LS, JP, ESP).The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

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As the study analyzed de-identified publicly available data, ethical approval was not required in accordance with Resolução N° 510 (7 April 2016) of the Brazilian Ethics System (Sistema CEP-CONEP) and confirmed with the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Research Ethics Committee (Reference 30472 and 30657).

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