Background. The duration of time a person with cystic fibrosis (pwCF) spends on the lung transplant waitlist is dependent on waitlist and post-transplant survival probabilities and can extend up to 2 years. Understanding the characteristics involved with lung transplant and survival prognoses may help guide decision making by the patient, the referring CF Center and the transplant team. Methods. This study seeks to identify clinical predictors of lung transplant and survival of individuals with CF using 29,847 subjects from 2003-2014 entered in the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR). Results. Predictors significant (p <= 0.05) in the final logistic regression model predicting probability of lung transplant/death were: FEV1 (% predicted), BMI, age of diagnosis, age, number of pulmonary exacerbations, race, sex, CF-related diabetes (CFRD), corticosteroid use, infections with B. cepacia, P. aeruginosa, S. aureus, MRSA, pancreatic enzyme use, insurance status, and consecutive ibuprofen use for at least 4 years. The final Cox regression model predicting time to lung transplant identified these predictors as significant FEV1 (% predicted), BMI, age of diagnosis, age, number of pulmonary exacerbations, race, sex, CF-related diabetes (CFRD), corticosteroid use, infections with B. cepacia, P. aeruginosa, S. aureus, MRSA, pancreatic enzyme use, and consecutive ibuprofen use for at least 4 years. The concordance indices were 0.89 and 0.92, respectively. Conclusions. The models are translated into nomograms to simplify investigation of how various characteristics relate to lung transplant and survival prognosis individuals with CF not receiving highly effective CFTR modulator therapy.

The authors have declared no competing interest.

The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.

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University of Wyoming Institutional Review Board provided approval, uploaded with this submission.

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I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).

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The data underlying the results presented in the study are available from the Cystic Fibrosis National Patient Registry (https://www.cff.org/medical-professionals/patient-registry).