Aims

Our aim was to study the incidence of type 2 diabetes in a population-based cohort of Swedish and Iraqi born individuals, focusing on traditional risk factors, insulin action, insulin secretion and ethnicity.

Materials and Methods

The cohort consisted of 1164 Iraqi and 693 Swedish-born citizens. We investigated the association between new-onset type 2 diabetes and the predictors including lifestyle factors, metabolic risk markers, country of birth, insulin sensitivity and secretion assessed by Matsuda index with Cox regression.

Results

Eighty-nine individuals were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes with a mean follow-up of 7.5 years. Both lower insulin sensitivity (ISI, HR 0.02 [0.01-0.08]) as well as insulin secretion (CIR, HR 0.13 [0.07-0.24]) at baseline predicted type 2 diabetes onset, independent of traditional risk factors. Our results were not modified by country of birth. Regarding traditional risk factors, WHR (1.05 [1.00-1.09]), blood glucose (3.27 [2.35-4.55]), LDL/HDL (1.46 [1.20-1.78]) and diastolic blood pressure 1.04 [1.00-1.07]) predicted diabetes incidence in the full model.

Conclusions

Both impaired insulin sensitivity index and corrected insulin response predicted type 2 diabetes onset, independent of traditional risk factors. We conclude that insulin secretion and action might be useful additional predictors for type 2 diabetes in populations of European and Middle Eastern ethnicities.

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