This model attempts to quantify the potential impact of GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1) in reducing global mortality linked to obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Using global population data, T2DM and obesity prevalence, cardiovascular risk, and mortality reduction from GLP-1s, we estimate that ~943,000 lives could be saved annually with widespread global access to GLP-1 receptor agonists for individuals with obesity and/or T2DM and CVD.

David Brook works part-time with Gilberts Solutions (gilbertslaw.ca) that has received advisory fees from Novo Nordisk but not for the development of this global model. Peter Singer owns shares of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.

Funding for the development and validation of this model is from the Sandra Rotman Centre for Global Health, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.

I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.

Yes

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Yes

I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).

Yes

I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable.

Yes

Model is provided in the Supplementary Materials. All data produced are available in the references cited in the model.