An economic evaluation was conducted to predict the economic and clinical burden of vaccinating immunocompromised (IC) individuals aged ≥30 years with mRNA-1273 variant-adapted COVID-19 vaccines in Fall 2023 and Spring 2024 versus BNT162b2 variant-adapted vaccines in France. The number of symptomatic COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, deaths, and long COVID cases, costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was estimated using a static decision-analytic model. Predicted vaccine effectiveness (VE) were based on real-world data from prior versions, suggesting higher protection against infection and hospitalization with mRNA-1273 vaccines. VE estimates were combined with COVID-19 incidence and probability of COVID-19 severe outcomes. Uncertainty surrounding VE, vaccine coverage, infection incidence, hospitalization and mortality rates, costs and QALYs were tested in sensitivity analyses. The mRNA-1273 variant-adapted vaccine is predicted to prevent an additional 3,882 infections, 357 hospitalizations, 81 deaths, and 326 long COVID cases when compared to BNT162b2 variant-adapted vaccines in 230,000 IC individuals. This translates to €10.1 million cost-savings from a societal perspective and 645 QALYs saved. Results were consistent across all analyses and most sensitive to variations surrounding VE and coverage. These findings highlight the importance of increasing vaccine coverage, and ability to induce higher levels of protection with mRNA-1273 formulations in this vulnerable population.

MK is a shareholder in Quadrant Health Economics, Inc., which was contracted by Moderna, Inc. to conduct this study. AL and MM are consultants at Quadrant Health Economics Inc. CD, NE and MU are employees of Moderna France and hold stock/stock options in the company. KJ and EB are employees of Moderna Inc and hold stock/stock options in the company. BD received fees for consultation from Moderna France.

This study was funded by Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA.

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