From the aDepartment of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT

bMarshfield Clinic Research Institute, Center for Clinical Epidemiology & Population Health, Marshfield, WI

cDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT

dYale Institute of Global Health, New Haven, CT

eYale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT.

Submitted March 30, 2023; accepted November 8, 2023

D.M.W. has received consulting fees from Pfizer, Merck, GSK, and Affinivax for work unrelated to this article, and research grants from Pfizer and Merck for work unrelated to this article. J.L.W. has received consulting fees from Pfizer for work unrelated to this article. V.E.P. is a member of the WHO Immunization and Vaccine-related Implementation Research Advisory Committee (IVIR-AC). The other authors have no conflicts to report.

This work is funded by grants from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and partially funded by grants from the NIH/NIAID (R01AI137093) and Yale Clinical and Translational Science Award (UL1 TR001863). This content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.

Supplemental digital content is available through direct URL citations in the HTML and PDF versions of this article (www.epidem.com).

All data and code required to replicate these analyses is available at https://github.com/weinbergerlab/sequential_bayesian_trials.

Correspondence: Daniel M. Weinberger, Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, PO Box 208034, New Haven, CT 06515. E-mail: [email protected].