This work was funded by a grant from the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme to DOLORISK (Grant 633491) and by a grant from the Medical Research Council and Versus Arthritis to the PAINSTORM consortium as part of the Advanced Pain Discovery Platform (MR/W002388/1). This paper is based on a deliverable of DOLORISK (Grant 633491), which can be found on Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/ug2mr).

Data availability statement: There are no data for this publication.

[1]. Andersen JH, Haahr JP, Frost P. Risk factors for more severe regional musculoskeletal symptoms: a two-year prospective study of a general working population. Arthritis Rheum 2007;56:1355–64. [2]. Angelov PP, Soares EA, Jiang R, Arnold NI, Atkinson PM. Explainable artificial intelligence: an analytical review. WIREs Data Mining Knowledge Discov 2021;11:e1424. [3]. Baskozos G, Themistocleous AC, Hebert HL, Pascal MMV, John J, Callaghan BC, Laycock H, Granovsky Y, Crombez G, Yarnitsky D, Rice ASC, Smith BH, Bennett DLH. Classification of painful or painless diabetic peripheral neuropathy and identification of the most powerful predictors using machine learning models in large cross-sectional cohorts. BMC Med Inform Decis Making 2022;22:144. [4]. Beatty PC, Willis GB. Research synthesis: the practice of cognitive interviewing. Public Opin Q 2007;71:287–311. [5]. Benedetti F. Mechanisms of placebo and placebo-related effects across diseases and treatments. Annu Rev Pharmacol Toxicol 2008;48:33–60. [6]. Bhardwaj A. Promise and provisos of artificial intelligence and machine learning in healthcare. J Healthc Leadersh 2022;14:113–8. [7]. Blyth FM, March LM, Nicholas MK, Cousins MJ. Chronic pain, work performance and litigation. PAIN 2003;103:41–7. [8]. Chaudhri V, Baru C, Chittar N, Dong X, Genesereth M, Hendler J, Kalyanpur A, Lenat D, Sequeda J, Vrandečić D, Wang K. Knowledge graphs: introduction, history and perspectives. AI Mag 2022;43:17–29. [9]. Chauhan RS, Riss C, Adhikari S, Derrible S, Zheleva E, Choudhury CF, Pereira FC. Determining causality in travel mode choice. arXiv 2023. [10]. Chen IY, Szolovits P, Ghassemi M. Can AI help reduce disparities in general medical and mental health care? AMA J Ethics 2019;21:e167–79. [11]. Cleeland C, Ryan K. Pain assessment: global use of the brief pain inventory. Ann Acad Med Singap 1994;23:129–38. [12]. Colloca L, Barsky AJ. Placebo and nocebo effects. N Engl J Med 2020;382:554–61. [13]. Crombez G, Beirens K, Van Damme S, Eccleston C, Fontaine J. The unbearable lightness of somatisation: a systematic review of the concept of somatisation in empirical studies of pain. PAIN 2009;145:31–5. [14]. Crombez G, De Paepe AL, Veirman E, Eccleston C, Verleysen G, Van Ryckeghem DML. Let's talk about pain catastrophizing measures: an item content analysis. PeerJ 2020;8:e8643. [15]. Crombez G, Vervaet L, Baeyens F, Lysens R, Eelen P. Do pain expectancies cause pain in chronic low back patients? A clinical investigation. Behav Res Ther 1996;34:919–25. [16]. Crombez G, Wiech K. You may (not always) experience what you expect: in search for the limits of the placebo and nocebo effect. PAIN 2011;152:1449–50. [17]. Crombez G. A conceptual framework for causal effects within a biopsychosocial perspective of pain. OSF Preprints 2023. doi: 10.31219/osf.io/ug2mr [18]. Eccleston C, Begley E, Birkinshaw H, Choy E, Crombez G, Fisher E, Gibby A, Gooberman-Hill R, Grieve S, Guest A, Jordan A, Lilywhite A, Macfarlane GJ, McCabe C, McBeth J, Pickering AE, Pincus T, Sallis HM, Stone S, Van der Windt D, Vitali D, Wainwright E, Wilkinson C, de C Williams AC, Zeyen A, Keogh E. The establishment, maintenance, and adaptation of high and low impact chronic pain: a framework for biopsychosocial pain research. PAIN 2023;164:2143–7. [19]. Eccleston C, Crombez G. Pain demands attention: a cognitive-affective model of the interruptive function of pain. Psychol Bull 1999;125:356–66. [20]. Gaskell AL, Sleigh JW. An introduction to causal diagrams for anesthesiology research. Anesthesiology 2020;132:951–67. [21]. Gatchel RJ, Peng YB, Peters ML, Fuchs PN, Turk DC. The biopsychosocial approach to chronic pain: scientific advances and future directions. Psychol Bull 2007;133:581–624. [22]. Ghiara V. Taking the Russo-Williamson thesis seriously in the social sciences. Synthese 2022;200:481. [23]. Glymour C, Zhang K, Spirtes P. Review of causal discovery methods based on graphical models. Front Genet 2019;10:524. [24]. Goldberg DS, McGee SJ. Pain as a global public health priority. BMC Public Health 2011;11:770. [25]. Greenland S, Pearl J, Robins JM. Causal diagrams for epidemiologic research. Epidemiology 1999;10:37–48. [26]. Greenland S, Lash TL. Bias analysis. Chapter 19. In: Rothman KJ, Greenland S, Lash TL, editors. Modern epidemiology. 3rd ed. Philadelphia: Lippincott–Williams–Wilkins, 2008. p. 345–80. [27]. Gureje O, Von Korff M, Kola L, Demyttenaere K, He Y, Posada-Villa J, Lepine JP, Angermeyer MC, Levinson D, de Girolamo G, Iwata N, Karam A, Guimaraes Borges GL, de Graaf R, Browne MO, Stein DJ, Haro JM, Bromet EJ, Kessler RC, Alonso J. The relation between multiple pains and mental disorders: results from the World Mental Health Surveys. PAIN 2008;135:82–91. [28]. Haslbeck JMB, Ryan O, Robinaugh DJ, Waldorp LJ, Borsboom D. Modeling psychopathology: from data models to formal theories. Psychol Methods 2022;27:930–57. [29]. Hayden JA, Van Der Windt DA, Cartwright JL, Cote P, Bombardier C. Assessing bias in studies of prognostic factors. Ann Intern Med 2013;158:280–6. [30]. Hernán MA, Hernández-Díaz S, Werler MM, Mitchell AA. Causal knowledge as a prerequisite for confounding evaluation: an application to birth defects epidemiology. Am J Epidemiol 2002;155:176–84. [31]. Hernán MA, Robins JM. Causal inference: What if. Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2020. [32]. Hill AB. The environment and disease: association or causation? Proc R Soc Med 1965;58:295–300. [33]. Hill AB. The environment and disease: association or causation? Observational Stud 2020;6:1–9. [34]. Illari P, Russo F, Williamson J, editors. Causality in the sciences. New York: Oxford University Press, 2011. [35]. Johnston M, Dixon D, Hart J, Glidewell L, Schröder C, Pollard B. Discriminant content validity: a quantitative methodology for assessing content of theory-based measures, with illustrative applications. Br J Health Psychol 2014;19:240–57. [36]. Keller S, Bann CM, Dodd SL, Schein J, Mendoza TR, Cleeland CS. Validity of the brief pain inventory for use in documenting the outcomes of patients with noncancer pain. Clin J Pain 2004;20:309–18. [37]. Kirsch I. Response expectancy theory and application: a decennial review. Appl Prev Psychol 1997;6:69–79. [38]. Knol MJ, VanderWeele TJ. Recommendations for presenting analyses of effect modification and interaction. Int J Epidemiol 2012;41:514–20. [39]. Kraemer HC, Stice E, Kazdin A, Offord D, Kupfer D. How do risk factors work together? Mediators, moderators, and independent, overlapping, and proxy risk factors. Am J Psychiatry 2001;158:848–56. [40]. Lauwerier E, Caes L, Van Damme S, Goubert L, Rosseel Y, Crombez G. Acceptance: what's in a name? A content analysis of acceptance instruments in individuals with chronic pain. J Pain 2015;16:306–17. [41]. Leeuw M, Goossens ME, Linton SJ, Crombez G, Boersma K, Vlaeyen JW. The fear-avoidance model of musculoskeletal pain: current state of scientific evidence. J Behav Med 2007;30:77–94. [42]. Linton SJ. A review of psychological risk factors in back and neck pain. Spine 2000;25:1148–56. [43]. Lipowski ZJ. Somatization: the concept and its clinical application. Am J Psychiatry 1988;145:1358–68. [44]. Macfarlane GJ, Pallewatte N, Paudyal P, Blyth FM, Coggon D, Crombez G, Linton S, Leino-Arjas P, Silman AJ, Smeets RJ, Van Der Windt D. Evaluation of work-related psychosocial factors and regional musculoskeletal pain: results from a EULAR Task Force. Ann Rheum Dis 2009;68:885–91. [45]. Mackie JL. The cement of the universe: a study of causation. Oxford: Clarendon, 1974. [46]. Marcus G, Davis E. Rebooting AI: building artificial intelligence we can trust. New York: Vintage, 2019. [47]. Martinez-Calderon J, Jensen MP, Morales-Asencio JM, Luque-Suarez A. Pain catastrophizing and function in individuals with chronic musculoskeletal pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Clin J Pain 2019;35:279–93. [48]. Mathur MB, VanderWeele TJ. Methods to address confounding and other biases in meta-analyses: review and recommendations. Annu Rev Public Health 2022;43:19–35. [49]. McCracken LM, Vowles KE, Eccleston C. Acceptance of chronic pain: component analysis and a revised assessment method. PAIN 2004;107:159–66. [50]. Mokkink LB, Terwee CB, Patrick DL, Alonso J, Stratford PW, Knol DL, Bouter LM, de Vet HC. The COSMIN study reached international consensus on taxonomy, terminology, and definitions of measurement properties for health-related patient-reported outcomes. J Clin Epidemiol 2010;63:737–45. [51]. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 2022. Ontologies in the behavioral sciences: accelerating research and the spread of knowledge. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. 2022. [52]. Nicholas MK. The biopsychosocial model of pain 40 years on: time for a reappraisal? PAIN 2022;163(suppl 1):S3–14. [53]. Nicholas MK. The pain self-efficacy questionnaire: taking pain into account. Eur J Pain 2007;11:153–63. [54]. Novy DM, Nelson DV, Francis DJ, Turk DC. Perspectives of chronic pain: an evaluative comparison of restrictive and comprehensive models. Psychol Bull 1995;118:238–47. [55]. Pascal MMV, Themistocleous AC, Baron R, Binder A, Bouhassira D, Crombez G, Finnerup NB, Gierthmühlen J, Granovsky Y, Groop L, Hebert HL, Jensen TS, Johnsen K, McCarthy MI, Meng W, Palmer CNA, Rice ASC, Serra J, Solà R, Yarnitsky D, Smith BH, Attal N, Bennett DLH. DOLORisk: study protocol for a multi-centre observational study to understand the risk factors and determinants of neuropathic pain. Wellcome Open Res 2018;3:63. [56]. Pearl J, Mackenzie D. The book of why: the new science of cause and effects. Harlow: Penguin Books, 2018. [57]. Pearl J. Causality. 2nd ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009. [58]. Peerdeman KJ, van Laarhoven AIM, Peters ML, Evers AWM. An integrative review of the influence of expectancies on pain. Front Psychol 2016;7:1270. [59]. Peters G, Crutzen R. Knowing what we're talking about: facilitating decentralized, unequivocal publication of and reference to psychological construct definitions and instructions. PsyArXiv 2022. doi: 10.31234/osf.io/8tpcv [60]. Peters GJY, Crutzen R. Pragmatic nihilism: how a theory of nothing can help health psychology progress. Health Psychol Rev 2017;11:103–21. [61]. Phillips CJ. The cost and burden of chronic pain. Rev Pain 2009;3:2–5. [62]. Pinto CB, Bielefeld J, Barroso J, Yip B, Huang L, Schnitzer T, Apkarian AV. Chronic pain domains and their relationship to personality, abilities, and brain networks. PAIN 2023;164:59–71. [63]. Price H, Weslake B. The time-asymmetry of causation. In: Beebee H, Hitchcock C, Menzies P, editors. The Oxford handbook of causation. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012. p. 414–43. [64]. Prins JB, van der Meer JWM, Bleijenberg G. Chronic fatigue syndrome. Lancet 2006;367:346–55. [65]. Raja SN, Carr DB, Cohen M, Finnerup NB, Flor H, Gibson S, Keefe FJ, Mogil JS, Ringkamp M, Sluka KA, Song X, Stevens B, Sullivan MD, Tutelman PR, Ushida T, Vader K. The revised International Association for the Study of Pain definition of pain: concepts, challenges, and compromises. PAIN 2020;161:1976–82. [66]. Ramspek CL, Steyerberg EW, Riley RD, Rosendaal FR, Dekkers OM, Dekker FW, van Diepen M. Prediction or causality? A scoping review of their conflation within current observational research. Eur J Epidemiol 2021;36:889–98. [67]. Rooney T, Sharpe L, Todd J, Richmond B, Colagiuri B. The relationship between expectancy, anxiety, and the nocebo effect: a systematic review and meta-analysis with recommendations for future research. Health Psychol Rev. doi: 10.1080/17437199.2022.2125894 [68]. Rothman KJ. Causes. Am J Epidemiol 1976;104:587–92. [69]. Rothman K, Greenland S, Poole C, Lash TL. Causation and causal inference. In: Rothman KJ, Greenland S, Lash TL, editors. Modern epidemiology. 3rd ed. Philadelphia: Lippincott–Williams–Wilkins, 2008. p. 5–31. [70]. Russo F, Williamson J. Interpreting causality in the health sciences. Int Stud Philos Sci 2007;21:157–70. [71]. Shahidi B, Curran-Everett D, Maluf KS. Psychosocial, physical, and neurophysiological risk factors for chronic neck pain: a prospective inception cohort study. J Pain 2015;16:1288–99. [72]. Shane J. You look like a thing and I love you. London: Headline Publishing Group, 2020. [73]. Shiffman S, Stone AA, Hufford MR. Ecological momentary assessment. Annu Rev Clin Psychol 2008;4:1–32. [74]. Skadberg RM, Moore TM, Elledge LC. A 20-year study of the bidirectional relationship between anxious and depressive symptomology and pain medication usage. Pain Manag 2020;10:13–22. [75]. Sobol-Kwapinska M, Bąbel P, Plotek W, Stelcer B. Psychological correlates of acute postsurgical pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Eur J Pain 2016;20:1573–86. [76]. Tarka P. An overview of structural equation modeling: its beginnings, historical development, usefulness and controversies in the social sciences. Qual Quant 2018;52:313–54. [77]. Tennant PWG, Murray EJ, Arnold KF, Berrie L, Fox MP, Gadd SC, Harrison WJ, Keeble C, Ranker LR, Textor J, Tomova GD, Gilthorpe MS, Ellison GTH. Use of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to identify confounders in applied health research: review and recommendations. Int J Epidemiol 2021;50:620–32. [78]. Textor J, Hardt J, Knüppel S. DAGitty: a graphical tool for analyzing causal diagrams. Epidemiology 2011;22:745. [79]. Toth C, Lander J, Wiebe S. The prevalence and impact of chronic pain with neuropathic pain symptoms in the general population. Pain Med 2009;10:918–29. [80]. Van Nieuwenhuyse A, Somville PR, Crombez G, Burdorf A, Verbeke G, Johannik K, Van den Bergh O, Masschelein R, Mairiaux P, Moens GF; BelCoBack Study Group. The role of physical workload and pain-related fear in the development of low back pain in young workers. Evidence from the BelCoBack Study: results after one year of follow-up. Occup Environ Med 2006;63:45–52. [81]. Van Ryckeghem D. Acceptance is not acceptance, but acceptance. Eur J Pain 2021;25:3–4. [82]. Van Ryckeghem DML, Crombez G. Assessment and measurement in health psychology. In: Asmundson G, editor. Comprehensive clinical psychology. 2022;8. p. 85–94. [83]. Veirman E, Van Ryckeghem DML, De Paepe A, Kirtley OJ, Crombez G. Multidimensional screening for predicting pain problems in adults: a systematic review of screening tools and validation studies. Pain Rep 2019;4:e775. [84]. Vlaeyen JWS, Crombez G. Behavioral conceptualization and treatment of chronic pain. Annu Rev Clin Psychol 2020;16:187–212. [85]. Vlaeyen JWS, Haslbeck JMB, Sjouwerman R, Peters ML. Towards a dynamic account of chronic pain. PAIN 2022;163:e1038–9. [86]. Vlaeyen JWS, Linton SJ. Fear-avoidance and its consequences in chronic musculoskeletal pain: a state of the art. PAIN 2000;85:317–32. [87]. Vos T, Barber RM, Bell B, Bertozzi-Villa A, Biryukov S, Bolliger I, Charlson F, Davis A, Degenhardt L, Dicker D, Duan L, Erskine H, Feigin VL, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Fleming T, Graetz N, Guinovart C, Haagsma J, Hansen GM, Hanson SW, Heuton KR, Higashi H, Kassebaum N, Kyu H, Laurie E, Liang X, Lofgren K, Lozano R, MacIntyre MF, Moradi-Lakeh M, Naghavi M, Nguyen G, Odell S, Ortblad K, Roberts DA, Roth GA, Sandar L, Serina PT, Stanaway JD, Steiner C, Thomas B, Vollset SE, Whiteford H, Wolock TM, Ye P, Zhou M, Ãvila MA, Aasvang GM, Abbafati C, Ozgoren AA, Abd-Allah F, Aziz MIA, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abraham JP, Abraham B, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Aburto TC, Achoki T, Ackerman IN, Adelekan A, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Arnlov J, Agardh EE, Al Khabouri MJ, Alam SS, Alasfoor D, Albittar MI, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen PJ, AlMazroa MA, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzman N, Ameli O, Amini H, Ammar W, Anderson BO, Anderson HR, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Apfel H, Arsenijevic VSA, Artaman A, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atkins LS, Atkinson C, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Bakfalouni T, Balakrishnan K, Balalla S, Banerjee A, Barker-Collo SL, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu S, Basu A, Baxter A, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bekele T, Bell ML, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Bernabe E, Beyene TJ, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhutta Z, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Abdulhak AB, Blore JD, Blyth FM, Bohensky MA, Basara BB, Borges G, Bornstein NM, Bose D, Boufous S, Bourne RR, Boyers LN, Brainin M, Brauer M, Brayne CE, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJ, Brenner H, Briggs AD, Brooks PM, Brown J, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Buckle GC, Bukhman G, Bulloch AG, Burch M, Burnett R, Cardenas R, Cabral NL, Nonato IRC, Campuzano JC, Carapetis JR, Carpenter DO, Caso V, Castaneda-Orjuela CA, Catala-Lopez F, Chadha VK, Chang JC, Chen H, Chen W, Chiang PP, Chimed-Ochir O, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christophi CA, Chugh SS, Cirillo M, Coggeshall M, Cohen A, Colistro V, Colquhoun SM, Contreras AG, Cooper LT, Cooper C, Cooperrider K, Coresh J, Cortinovis M, Criqui MH, Crump JA, Cuevas-Nasu L, Dandona R, Dandona L, Dansereau E, Dantes HG, Dargan PI, Davey G, Davitoiu DV, Dayama A, De la Cruz-Gongora V, de la Vega SF, De Leo D, del Pozo-Cruz B, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Derrett S, Des Jarlais DC, Dessalegn M, deVeber GA, Dharmaratne SD, Diaz-Torne C, Ding EL, Dokova K, Dorsey ER, Driscoll TR, Duber H, Durrani AM, Edmond KM, Ellenbogen RG, Endres M, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fahimi S, Farzadfar F, Fay DF, Felson DT, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Ferri CP, Flaxman A, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Fowkes FGR, Franklin RC, Furst T, Futran ND, Gabbe BJ, Gankpe FG, Garcia-Guerra FA, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gibney KB, Gillum RF, Ginawi IA, Giroud M, Giussani G, Goenka S, Goginashvili K, Gona P, de Cosio TG, Gosselin RA, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Guerrant Rl, Gugnani HC, Gunnell D, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gutierrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagan H, Halasa Y, Hamadeh RR, Hamavid H, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay S, Hedayati MT, Pi IBH, Heydarpour P, Hijar M, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Hornberger JC, Hosgood HD, Hossain M, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hu H, Hu G, Huang JJ, Huang C, Huiart L, Husseini A, Iannarone M, Iburg KM, Innos K, Inoue M, Jacobsen KH, Jassal SK, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jonas JB, Joseph J, Juel K, Kan H, Karch A, Karimkhani C, Karthikeyan G, Katz R, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Khader YS, Khalifa SEA, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khonelidze I, Kieling C, Kim D, Kim S, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kinge JM, Kissela BM, Kivipelto M, Knibbs L, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Kramer A, Kravchenko M, Krishnamurthi RV, Krishnaswami S, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni VS, Kumar K, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lai T, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larson H, Larsson A, Lawrynowicz AE, Leasher JL, Lee JT, Leigh J, Leung R, Levi M, Li B, Li Y, Li Y, liang J, Lim S, Lin HH, Lind M, Lindsay MP, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Lloyd BK, Ohno SL, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lopez AD, Lopez-Olmedo N, Lortet-Tieulent J, Lotufo PA, Low N, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma J, Ma S, Mackay MT, Majdan M, Malekzadeh R, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, March LM, Margono C, Marks GB, Marzan MB, Masci JR, Mason-Jones AJ, Matzopoulos RG, Mayosi BM, Mazorodze TT, McGill NW, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McLain A, McMahon BJ, Meaney PA, Mehndiratta MM, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen W, Melaku YA, Meltzer M, Memish ZA, Mensah G, Meretoja A, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Moffitt TE, Ibrahim NM, Mohammad KA, Mokdad AH, Mola GL, Monasta L, Montico M, Montine TJ, Moore AR, Moran AE, Morawska L, Mori R, Moschandreas J, Moturi WN, Moyer M, Mozaffarian D, Mueller UO, Mukaigawara M, Murdoch ME, Murray J, Murthy KS, Naghavi P, Nahas Z, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nand D, Nangia V, Narayan KV, Nash D, Nejjari C, Neupane SP, Newman LM, Newton CR, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Nhung NT, Nisar MI, Nolte S, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Omer SB, Opio JN, Ortiz A, Pandian JD, Panelo CIA, Papachristou C, Park EK, Parry CD, Caicedo AJP, Patten SB, Paul VK, Pavlin BI, Pearce N, Pedraza LS, Pellegrini CA, Pereira DM, Perez-Ruiz FP, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Peterson CB, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Phillips D, Phillips B, Piel FB, Plass D, Poenaru D, Polanczyk GV, Polinder S, Pope CA, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Prasad NM, Qato D, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman SU, Raju M, Rakovac I, Rana SM, Razavi H, Refaat A, Rehm J, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Riccio PM, Richardson L, Richardus JH, Riederer AM, Robinson M, Roca A, Rodriguez A, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Rothenbacher D, Roy N, Ruhago GM, Sabin N, Sacco RL, Ksoreide K, Saha S, Sahathevan R, Sahraian MA, Sampson U, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Riera L, Santos IS, Satpathy M, Saunders JE, Sawhney M, Saylan MI, Scarborough P, Schoettker B, Schneider IJ, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Serdar B, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford K, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Levy TS, Shangguan S, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shepard DS, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shinohara Y, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh JA, Singh L, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soljak M, Soneji S, Soshnikov SS, Speyer P, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stoeckl H, Stathopoulou VK, Steckling N, Stein MB, Stein DJ, Steiner TJ, Stewart A, Stork E, Stovner LJ, Stroumpoulis K, Sturua L, Sunguya BF, Swaroop M, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Takahashi K, Tan F, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tanner M, Tavakkoli M, Taylor HR, Te Ao BJ, Temesgen AM, Have MT, Tenkorang EY, Terkawi AS, Theadom AM, Thomas E, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Tleyjeh IM, Tonelli M, Topouzis F, Towbin JA, Toyoshima H, Traebert J, Tran BX, Trasande L, Trillini M, Truelsen T, Trujillo U, Tsilimbaris M, Tuzcu EM, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uzun SB, van Brakel WH, van de Vijver S, Dingenen RV, van Gool CH, Varakin YY, Vasankari TJ, Vavilala MS, Veerman LJ, Velasquez-Melendez G, Venketasubramanian N, Vijayakumar L, Villalpando S, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Waller S, Wallin MT, Wan X, Wang L, Wang J, Wang Y, Warouw TS, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Wessells KRR, Westerman R, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Williams TN, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CD, Wong JQ, Wong H, Woolf AD, Wright JL, Wurtz B, Xu G, Yang G, Yano Y, Yenesew MA, Yentur GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis M, Yu C, Kim KY, Zaki MES, Zhang Y, Zhao Z, Zhao Y, Zhu J, Zonies D, Zunt JR, Salomon JA, Murray CJ. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet 2015;386:743–800.